The Turkish Lira in Dance of Demons, When Will Stability Come Back?
Turkish Lira Analysis
Yesterday we saw an audiovisual show of the Turkish Lira, It was probably the day of change ....Such a gesture suggests something big - 20% weaker in a month - does not seem like that
The Turkish Lira has made an incredible move of almost a penny in one month
Yesterday the Turkish lira broke all records of all time ever!
Reached a level of 4.93 against the dollar - almost touched a rate of 5
and then the Turkish central bank steeply raised a benchmark lending rate from 13.5% to 16.5%
And the Lira closed the day below the opening price at a level of 4.57 + _ (a 7% movement in an unbelievable day)
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| Turkish lira analysis |
Do not forget that we started the month with the rate of 4 per dollar - it is not caught
From the observation of the positions in the market (traders) you can see the closing positions of the traders, and as a result, the Lira has also received Short Squeeze - lots have closed positions and this leads to a sharp jump because once you close the sale then the price jumps
On the other hand, almost all of them have already given up and surrendered - perhaps this is the sign of thinking
If now the traders have turned upside down and think that Turkish lira will be at 5 then maybe it is not ?
I mention that there is more than good chance that we are going to see similar behavior who’s appeared in the past
Still, this is not a Third World country - violence usually leads to violence
The Turkish lira has already experienced several violent events so we will try to learn and understand where it goes
In 2001 you can see that the Turkish currency weakened against the dollar against the dollar
From 0.66 to 1.66 area in 9 months from February to October
Now the question arises whether this time we will see such a thing again.
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| USD TRY analysis |
Next month elections are expected in Turkey on June 24
If we talk about percentages, we are far from what we saw in 2001, but if we talk in nominal numbers, there was not a movement of nearly 10,000 pips in one month in the Turkish lira.
Now let's get to the graphs and see what it's all about
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| USD TRY forecast |
Technical analysis review
Long-term trend forecast moved is still up as long as 3.78 will hold!
Break below 3.78 on weekly basis will send the Turkish to 3.49
Upper limits for this round, in my opinion, was limited to 4.18-4.22 but it failed and we saw today 4.3770 –now watch closely on the prices
A weekly close below 3.780+- will confirm for more down moves
Points to pay attention: 4.08/4.11 / 3.93-4+_ / 3.87 / 3.83+_ / 3.74+_/3.66
Short-term trend forecast: Break below 4.08-11 will send the Turkish to 3.93- below this levels, you need to watch long-term trends mentions above
In terms of behavior, I think the Turkish lira is expected to recover towards 4.20 + _
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| Turkish lira rate |
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This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice
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