February 18, 2018

Two trading patterns in the price chart that can hint at the future in the markets


Has the danger passed and the realization is over?


The indices have indeed corrected well and now a majority reach critical test levels in my opinion
If the assumption of two trading patterns that can be formed will be implemented
Then interesting and beautiful movements can be expected
Two trading patterns in the price chart that can hint at the future in the markets

First pattern = Failure to cross the buffer of 25600 + _ in the wide range of 25500-25800
May lead the index again down to areas of 24300 points or even lower
Second pattern = Midnight success in the deserts of 25600 + _ in the extensive range of 25500-25800
May lead the index again down to areas of 24300 points

if you follow last posts, you all know and showed last predictions and wasn't surprised

MARKETS ANALYSIS
MARKETS FORECAST 




"" According to the sentiment and the graph, we are on the edge and therefore I think this is the point in which it is worth trying to check whether it will work
I am talking about trading, of course, on the indices when I assume that the markets are in the process of correcting whether I am healthy or not yet know
But patch down almost certainly - with a probability of more than 70%
Let’s build a test strategy
Short position with a stop of 3-4% and profit 7-8%

A ratio of 1: 2 in terms of chance of risk"



markets technical analysis patterns:

First one is the Bearish Gartley as follows:

AB must retrace 61.8% of the XA leg
BC can retrace between 38.2% – 88.6% of AB
CD can be an extension of 1.272% – 1.618% of AB
CD can also be a retracement of up to 78.6% of XA leg
The point D is known as the PRZ or Potential Reversal Zone

MARKETS CHARTS PATTERN
Bearish Gartley

The second one is the Bearish Butterfly  as follows:

AB can retrace up to 78.6% of the XA leg
BC can retrace between 38.2% – 88.6% of AB
CD can be an extension of 1.618% – 2.618% of AB
CD can also be an extension of up to 1.272% – 1.618% of XA leg
The point D is known as the PRZ or Potential Reversal Zone

markets pattern
Bearish Butterfly



This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice

February 15, 2018

Does the Turkish Lira produce a trend similar to the years 2002-2004 and the peak behind us?

Turkish lira analysis forecast 

The Turkish lira traded almost 3 months between 3.85+_ to 3.73+_ boundary price after last year we saw in November new record and Turkish lira almost touch 4 against the dollar

Last post on the try was "Is the journey of the Turkish lira halted or is it just a pause"

Past Reviews covered the Turkish lira among last years for last trend was written here:
My assumption was that we are going ro see the Turkish lira going to 4.12,but I noticed to some obstacles whom may not give the Turkish the way up to those levels
 

Turkish lira forecast
turkish lira analysis


I’m covering the try for many years , I mention not one that we are going to see the Turkish going over 4 to 4.11-4.20 ,today the USD/try reached for now a new low – check the charts – if I'm seeing the right picture so we are in process of creating new lows above 4, but the question if it will stop there ?

Looking on the charts showing us 2 times in history that it happens so I'm guessing this time it will be the same behavior, but the question is if there will be any innervation from turkey government on those numbers???
Technical analysis and similar pattern appears in 2002 – look the chart, if this is the same scenario, so we need to expect to see the Turkish lira going below 3.52 price, but it will happen only if Turkish lira won’t go up above 4.10, if this is the case , so we need to be ready for Trading a shuffle strip for a period of a long time, Which means that the programming of a trading band between the ranges of 3.4 to 4 for a long period, similar to the scenario in 2002-2008
My assumption now is that we are witness the same move as 2002-2003 – that’s mean that usd try going to see again lower prices such as 3.34 and even lower


Technical analysis:
Pay attention to 3.73 price level! – closed below this level will send the Turkish lira to cope with 3.59-3.62+_ price area
While stay above those levels could send the USD to try to 3.89-3.92 price levels
Long-term trend forecast moved is still up as long as 3.34 will hold!
Break below 3.34-6 on weekly basis will send the Turkish to 3.24-6 while break above3.91 will lead the usd/try to cope with 4.11+

usd try forecast
usd try analysis



One more thing is about eur/try :
4.89-4.96 +_ area for finished this movement
For short time, I think we will see 4.76-4.78 price area 


eur try forecast
eur try analysis




This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice

February 14, 2018

Whether the price of oil has gone up or is it just a temporary halt before resuming a rally?


crude oil prices - some interesting information for knowing 


crude oil prices down more than 10% from the last record at 66.60 $ , when it will stop?
I'm going to show you some interesting stuff about crude oil prices Later in this article

some news comes from IEA:
" The International Energy Agency (IEA) today published their forecast for oil demand growth in 2018 at 1.4 million bpd from a previous projection of 1.3 million bpd. However, the boost in output, particularly in the U.S., will outweigh any growth in demand and increase global oil inventories. The IEA reported, “Today, having cut costs dramatically, U.S. producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth"

crude oil supply
crude oil demand


Crude Oil Technical analysis
After the pattern achieved  as I mention the last post- the pattern suggests the bullish trend, for the coming trading sessions, pointing that the prices creating a possible bullish pattern that its confirmation wti level situated at 69 $, from looking at the charts we can see also support at 57 area This pattern also suggests some corrections after reaching the target. Breaking down 57 followed by levels will send the crude oil to cope with 52-54 $l again = strong support!
look on the white strip - you can see clearly the block on the bounder areas 


crude oil  price analysis
crude oil analysis

oil prices analysis
oil analysis
And for dessert something interesting :Rig Counts
Baker Hughes Rig Counts are published by major newspapers and trade publications, are referred to frequently by journalists, economists, security analysts and government officials, and are included in many industry statistical reports. Because they have been compiled consistently for 70 years, Baker Hughes Rig Counts also are useful in the historical analysis of the industry.
Hughes initiated the monthly international rig count in 1975. The North American rig count is released weekly at noon central time on the last day of the work week. The international rig count is released on the fifth working day of each month.

i  checked and compare oil prices to their details  see below


oil review
oil price forecast

Based on the data presented, we can see interesting things:
Quantity of new wells and drillings added according to the price of oil
In the good years of oil in terms of the price of course mainly in 2014 before the big drop in oil prices, you can see that there were an average of 3578 wells
In 2015 the number of wells dropped to 2337 wells when at the peak of the slump in oil prices the quantity stood at 1969 wells when in 2016 the average quantity stood at 1593 wells and the price of oil played between $ 40-50
When the price returned to be firm and relatively stable over $ 50 then the quantity began to rise again gradually
The evidence shows that in 2017 there were 2089 wells
And already in 2018 the quantity continues to rise, suggesting that there is still time for a boom in the sum of well , and inflation in the sum of wells versus oil prices
Let's say that an average area of 2500 wells is a equilibrium point to address it against oil prices and check where the price is relative to the quantity of wells






This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice

February 08, 2018

Whether the market crash is over and continues to new highs or is another surprise

markets collapse technical analysis update 


if you follow last posts, you all know and showed last predictions and wasn't surprised



"" According to the sentiment and the graph, we are on the edge and therefore I think this is the point in which it is worth trying to check whether it will work
I am talking about trading, of course, on the indices when I assume that the markets are in the process of correcting whether I am healthy or not yet know
But patch down almost certainly - with a probability of more than 70%
Let’s build a test strategy
Short position with a stop of 3-4% and profit 7-8%
A ratio of 1: 2 in terms of chance of risk"



Now Cycles is the whole story
Looking at the Dow contract you can see that the decline in the decline was higher than the increase, which does not signal an end at the moment, I would like to see a higher turnover in order to say with certainty that the correction is over
I think there is a chance and even more explaining that the index will return to check the area 24100 + _ and perhaps even 23750 + _ back should closely monitor developments

markets analysis
markets volume



Is the avalanche of markets here? Or it just woke up before continuing the journey to the moon


markets technical analysis
markets forecast

p.s
i found something interesting o GOLD -  be following up in the next few days and I'll post an interesting post about the gold

This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice

February 06, 2018

What does the statistics of the month of February in the markets say Will this time also be so?

markets statistic analysis


I stopped for a moment to check out something I remember from the markets and this is the February statistics
As far as I can remember from the memory of the past - the month of February tends to be reversed in the first half compared to the second half
I said let's check
took the graph of the SP500 index and put numbers and statistics on the graph
You can see a very interesting thing that the opening of the month and closing are almost the same numbers!
Although there have been months in which there was a strong fluctuation below the index closed almost as it started
What is more interesting is to go to years in which there were landslides
2007 and 2008 and there it can be seen also
Will the month of February 2018 markets also be such?

markets analysis
markets statistics 



This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice