September 18, 2017

Has the Turkish Lira finished the correction from the last record level and is now facing new highs?

Turkish lira price forecast technical analysis update 


The Turkish lira is weakening again against the dollar again over 3.50, after last week it has already touched 3.47 and is back down again
Some economics facts from last period: Turkey’s 5.1% growth in the second quarter was stronger than expected, asset reporting.
there are some opinions about the slowdown in the economy is expected beginning next year, looking at growth to slow to 4.1% next year.
Turkey’s unemployment rate held steady at 10.2% in June, which covered the May-July period, unchanged from the levels of one month and one year earlier, data from the Turkish Statistics Institute, TurkStat, showed Friday.
The non-agricultural unemployment rate stood at 12.2% on average during the May-July period, the data showed, also unchanged from both a month and a year earlier.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 11.1% with a 0.2 percentage point year


USD TRY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
USD TRY ANALYSIS



Technical analysis:

Now you must pay attention for this price level! – closed below this level will send the Turkish lira to cope with 3.40+_ price area, or even to lower price to the 3.34-3.36 price level
While stay above those levels could send the USD to try to 3.56-.359 price levels
The only move above 3.56-59 will confirm the end of these corrections
Long-term trend forecast moved is still up as long as 3.34 will hold!
Break below 3.34-6 on weekly basis will send the Turkish to 3.24-6 


Those are the scenario: 

Turkish lira going to test 3.51 area 
There are several scenarios:
The first one: going up till 3.56 _+ price area and from there going back down to test again 3.41-3 price area
The second scenario is break up 3.56 price area in daily basis closed and going all the way to 3.74 price area and even to new record above 4 to 4.20 price area
The last one is the inability to hold above 3.41 and a new negative price level of 3.26 if not less
My scenario as you probably know and I said more than once that the trend is still in place and we expect a new record for areas of 4.12 + _ as long as the 3.39-3.41 level will hold!!!

Turkish lira  technical analysis
Turkish lira 



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September 16, 2017

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September 13, 2017

Do the British Pound and UK economy of the 1990s (the devaluation of the Pound in 1992) come back again?

 Pound Dollar Technical analysis forecast update 

All eyes will now be on the Bank of England’s today meeting at which policymakers are due to vote on interest rates. Members of the nine-person Monetary Policy Committee have warned that their tolerance for higher inflation, despite the weakness of the overall economy, is limited After the Brexit vote, growth was strong but then faded as rising import prices stoked inflation and hit households’ incomes more than that Sterling’s depreciation has hurt consumers, by fuelling inflation, more than it has helped exporters
The future for UK economy is not clear there is uncertainty over Britain’s future trading arrangements after Brexit
The latest Treasury round-up of independent forecasts by economists show this new thinking at work.In August 2016, economists expected net trade to contribute 0.5 percentage points to growth in 2017. But they now think trade’s contribution will be zero. And over the five years starting in 2017, the total contribution of trade to the UK economy is predicted to be not much more than nothing, at 0.2 percentage points.


STERLING DOLLAR PRICE
STERLING DOLLAR 





Technical analysis on the pound dollar 



Expect strong resistance below 1.3300 to bring larger down trend resumption, while we have first to meet 1.3080. On the downside, break of 1.2840 support will indicate short-term topping. If it will fail to stay above the level it will be turned back to the downside for 1.2640 support current upside target for GBP/USD comes in ahead of this key resistance level, at approximately 1.3260- a break above this level ON DAILY CLOSE  will test the trend for the GBP USD , This target was derived from the resistance (white band ) through all his decline from 1.57_+ area - mark on the chart below
As of today writing the post, the pound Sterling hovers near one-year high to1.3320 ahead of Bank of England meeting BUT CLOSED BELOW 1.3260

GBP USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
GBP USD ANALYSIS


Focus on its the COT position trade report

See trend line it's still bearish, second is the shorts long position the same situation appears at 2015 so if that the case im expect to see the Sterling went down again  


POUND DOLLAR  MAP POSITION
POUND DOLLAR POSITION 

GBP USD FORECAST
GBP POSITION 




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September 10, 2017

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September 05, 2017

Canadian Dollar trading risk rewards face junction at 1.20 and 1.30 price area stay in focus

Canadian Dollar Technical analysis price  forecast update




usd cad price  forecast
usd cad forecast 


i start to analyze usdcad when is faced with the break point in 2013

a quick brief on the economic situation 
After a short respite from monetary movements more could soon be on the way, at least one of them might bring some news and volatility 

Governor Stephen Poloz and his monetary team, the issue is whether the Canadian economy can embrace another rate hike after the July ice-breaker – the first increase in seven years, If the Bank of Canada opts for an increase, likely in the range of 25-50 basis points, the Canadian benchmark interest rate would be at 1%

Canadian and U.S. economies are now far removed from where they stood in 2008 in the midst of a global financial crisis and the Great Recession. But monetary policy remains a work in progress for both countries – and timing is crucial for any stimulus withdrawal.


The Fed’s Sept. 19-20 gathering appears to have increased in importance, given the growing anticipation for the pull-back on QE.– and commencing in October – presuming there is no (U.S.) debt ceiling.

So far, the U.S. economy appears to be co-operating with that plan. Even so, there are two more opportunities for the Fed to make a move on this year’s calendar – during their Oct. 31-Nov.1 or Dec. 12-13 policy sessions.





usd cad  price analysis
usd cad analysis


Technical analysis outlook update:

If we look on the charts we can see that there is a major support in 1.30 price area (break already), if the usd cad will hold this levels it will probably continue up  - not happened  ,if not we should expect for more corrections to 1.19+_ price levels when the price will cross down 1.2310 price area
Usd/cad stays on the downside for the moment, a breakdown of the area of 1.2310 which will indicate the continuation of the pair’s decline with the potential target below the level of 1.19+_.
See the bands and crosses stretch during the years (red and white)
Usdcad approaching to junction – same happen at 2006 year
The only move above 1.30 price area will confirm for more up movements
From risk rewards side my suggestion is to test 1.19 for long position test with tight s/l if the price will be reached there

usd/cad spread
usd cad technical 





This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice