December 04, 2017

Is the journey of the Turkish lira halted or is it just a pause before setting of new records?

Turkish lira analysis


Is the journey of the Turkish lira halted or is it just a pause?
The Turkish lira, which soared to a record high of almost 4 against the dollar last month, fell below 3.90 after Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had given no orders to put restrictions on capital inflows abroad.
In addition to the economic aspect of the data: Turkish inflation leaps to almost 13%, a 14-year high
Which could lead to an increase in interest rates and strengthen the Turkish lira against the dollar
It is expected that an increase in the rate of late liquidity - which constitutes the upper end of the central bank's interest corridor - will take it from 12.25% to 12.50%
Last month The Turkish lira weakened to a record low of 3.9789 against the dollar today, extending losses driven by concerns about Ankara's strained relations with the United States
My assumption was that we are going ro see the Turkish lira going to 4.12 , but I noticed to some obstacles whom may not give the Turkish the way up to those levels

Turkish lira  analysis forecast
turkish lira forecast 

I’m covering the try for many years , I mention not one that we are going to see the Turkish going over 4 to 4.11-4.20 ,today the USD/try reached for now a new low – check the charts – if I'm seeing the right picture so we are in process of creating new lows above 4, but the question if it will stop there?


The last correction brought the Turkish lira  to 3.39 same as I predict:

Turkish lira technical analysis
Turkish lira  analysis 

Looking on the charts showing us 2 times in history that it happens so I'm guessing this time it will be the same behavior, but the question is if there will be any innervation from turkey government on those numbers???
Technical analysis and similar pattern appears in 2002 – look the chart, if this is the same scenario, so we need to expect to see the Turkish lira going below 3.52 price, but it will happen only if Turkish lira won’t go up above 4.10, if this is the case , so we need to be ready for Trading a shuffle strip for a period of a long time, Which means that the programming of a trading band between the ranges of 3.4 to 4 for a long period, similar to the scenario in 2002-2008

usd try  technical analysis
Turkish lira technical analysis 


Technical analysis:
Pay attention to 3.94 price level! – closed below this level will send the Turkish lira to cope with 3.82-5+_ price area, or even to lower price to the 3.7-6 price level
While stay above those levels could send the USD to try to 4.12 price levels
Long-term trend forecast moved is still up as long as 3.34 will hold!
Break below 3.34-6 on weekly basis will send the Turkish to 3.24-6 while break above3.91 will lead the usd/try to cope with 4.11+

usd try technical analysis
usd try foreacst 



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