November 06, 2017

The Turkish lira continues to trade nervously in the wake of rumors and actions, what is to be expected

Turkish lira price forecast technical analysis update 


The Turkish lira is weakening again against the dollar again over 3.76, after last week it has already touched 3.88
Today there was some majors announced: Turkish Central Bank takes a step to provide liquidity, The Central Bank on Monday lowered the upper limit for forex maintenance facility, a move that will provide approximately $1.4 billion in liquidity to Turkey’s financial system.
In a statement, the bank said the upper limit for the forex maintenance facility had been lowered to 55 percent from 60 percent and 5 points reduced all tranches.
It aims to support the country’s foreign exchange reserve management of the banking system and limit adverse effects of excess capital flow volatility on Turkey’s macroeconomic and financial stability

Also, they are rumors about the VISA issue with the US  :
Turkey’s lira led gains among emerging-market currencies after Reuters reported the U.S. resumed visa processing for the country on a limited basis.
Lira gains 1.4% to 3.8341 per dollar, after Friday’s 2.3% slump
“Given that the diplomatic spat between Turkey and the U.S. contributed to the lira’s selloff, any signals that would indicate that relationship may gradually normalize will provide the lira with respite,” says Piotr Matys, a currency strategist at Rabobank in London

 
USD/TRY FORECAST
USD/TRY ANALYSIS





Technical analysis:

Now you must pay attention for 3.75-6 price level! – closed below this level will send the Turkish lira to cope with 3.56-9+_ price area, or even to lower price to the 3.34-3.36 price level
While stay above those levels could send the USD to try to 3.82-3 price levels
Long-term trend forecast moved is still up as long as 3.34 will hold!
Break below 3.34-6 on weekly basis will send the Turkish to 3.24-6 while break above3.91 will lead the usd/try to cope with 4.11+_ 

 
Turkish lira analysis
usd try forecast





Turkish lira going to test 3.51 area 
There are several scenarios:
The first one: going up till 3.56 _+ price area and from there going back down to test again 3.41-3 price area
The second scenario is break up 3.56 price area in daily basis closed and going all the way to 3.74 price area and even to new record above 4 to 4.20 price area
The last one is the inability to hold above 3.41 and a new negative price level of 3.26 if not less
My scenario as you probably know and I said more than once that the trend is still in place and we expect a new record for areas of 4.12 + _ as long as the 3.39-3.41 level will hold!!!




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This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice