crude oıl analysis, the prediction came true in 100%

crude oıl analysis, the prediction came true in 100%

this post is written by me for FXEMPIRE in 18.1.2016 - as you can see in your eyes 100% accurate

With the lifting of sanctions, Iran would be able to export as much crude oil to the world as it can, or as much as it can find demand for. Before imposing an oil embargo on Iran in 2012, one in every five barrels of Iranian crude went to European refineries. Iran has been selling just over one million barrels a day for the past few years, mostly to China, India, Japan and South Korea.

Iran says it will hike sales by 500,000 barrels the day after sanctions are lifted and increase total exports to around 2.5 million barrels within the next year. This will push the price only to one direction: downwards. The market is already flooded with cheap oil and there will be many more barrels in the market than there are buyers.

In order to win back its customers, Iran plans to offer discounts on prices that are already the lowest in 11 years. Iran's full return to the market could trigger a price war with its arch-rival Saudi Arabia, which is trying to keep its own market share by selling under the market price.

Rather than causing an economic crisis, the worst of the oil price slump may already be over. The depressant effects of falling commodity prices hit hard and fast. Their positive impact almost always takes longer to trickle through the economy. We may now be seeing that inflection point in the West.

USD/CAD and Crude Oil- How Would They Be Affected by the Latest Events in Iran?

According to eia: “suggesting that the market expects WTI prices to range from $25/b to $56/b (at the 95% confidence interval).”

Now let’s have a look at the oil industry:

The Baker Hughes Rig Counts are an important business barometer for the drilling industry and its suppliers. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for products used in drilling, completing, producing and processing hydrocarbons.

I have looked into two major prices impacts: on 1998 and 2009.

Those years show significant low prices for oil, in 1998 the lowest price was 16$ and in 2009 the lowest price was 33$, now let’s put those prices with Rig Counts data

* this data is taken from bakerhughes.com

1998

1998	Latin America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Asia Pacific	Total Intl.	Canada	U.S.	Total World
Jan	276	109	82	165	187	819	481	993	2293
Feb	269	114	81	165	180	809	507	974	2290
Mar	271	102	82	165	186	806	390	932	2128
Apr	266	105	83	169	182	805	128	886	1819
May	258	98	86	169	187	798	157	855	1810
Jun	260	107	79	164	180	790	238	854	1882
Jul	241	86	68	171	165	731	217	816	1764
Aug	227	91	67	169	168	722	211	792	1725
Sep	219	108	61	170	174	732	187	774	1693
Oct	209	91	67	160	159	686	153	734	1573
Nov	212	87	68	164	158	689	201	688	1578
Dec	213	85	62	160	151	671	248	647	1566
Avg.	243	99	74	166	173	755	260	829	1843

2009

2009	Latin America	Europe	Africa	Middle East	Asia Pacific	Total Intl.	Canada	U.S.	Total World
Jan	381	93	58	274	238	1044	377	1553	2974
Feb	374	81	59	264	242	1020	413	1320	2753
Mar	358	95	61	262	236	1012	196	1105	2313
Apr	349	86	62	253	236	986	74	995	2055
May	357	82	62	253	239	993	72	918	1983
Jun	343	77	64	247	236	967	125	895	1987
Jul	351	73	57	249	244	974	175	931	2080
Aug	344	78	58	234	233	947	178	980	2105
Sep	355	83	57	245	246	986	208	1009	2203
Oct	351	84	62	239	247	983	244	1044	2271
Nov	361	86	68	253	257	1025	277	1107	2409
Dec	353	84	70	251	266	1024	313	1172	2509
Avg.	356	84	62	252	243	997	221	1086	2304

What would be now in 2016?

From the last count on the 15^th of January, we can see something interesting and this is related also to usd/cad price:

From the technical side:

Let’s test the Canadian dollar compatibility, we will see oil prices within the past weeks when the currency follows strong moves by the expectation. At the moment, I expect for radical moves don't surprised if the amendment to the level of 1.24 + _ equivalent to the level of 51-4 oil prices.

If oil will move more than that we need to expect even stronger repair more at the level of 1.19 + _". Another leg up in the usd/cad will lead to 1.46+_ or 1.48-90 (With an option to continue the level from 1.54 to 55). The 1.46-1.48 Area hand by hand with crude oil to 26-28 prices. Oil chart is in Type of building wedge, it could leading to prices corrections over 50$. Another thing that watched in Canadian dollars charts. Now, remains to be seen whether this time too it will come...... If it would, then I predict targets, 1.24-1.19 in usd/cad area with oil prices in 51-55.

But when the news is the worst ….. Is it the time to buy, or maybe it’s the time to sell?

This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice