How Dollar Index Can Keep Your Trades Success
How Dollar Index Can Keep Your Trades Success
Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DXY) was under pressure after Wednesday’s FOMC statement, while poor US GDP figures provided follow through to the downside on Friday. The sharp selloff erased the prior four weeks of gains in DXY but we have a lot of activity this week, and the trend could change easily
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| DXY |
After The dollar index go above 97 last month for the first time since February 2016, he made rebound and fell almost 2 % since then, dollar index price now 95.53 dollar index which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies ended down 1.3 percent, EUR rose 0.85 percent to $1.1172, JPY rose 2.78 percent to 102.3
Fed policy makers will gather again in Washington on June 14-15, and Chair Janet Yellen will discuss the decision in a press conference, so I do not expect to see some big changes before that, also as I mention my last post on the dollar index we need to wait and see what will happen at 95-96 area, Futures markets see the probability of an interest rate rise in December at 35.7 percent, according to CME Fed Watch
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| Fed Watch |
From the Technical side
on dollar index price: look on the charts we can see support at 95+_ the level served as resistance throughout April and provided support in May, dollar index rate should keep above those level to confirm more upside, fall through could take it to the next support level of 92-93 ,dollar index rate also is expected to find its first resistance at 95.30-60, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 96.20, For my opinion we probably see the dollar index rate at least to 95.60-96 area for a test, if not low level such as 94.30 taken into consider
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| DOLLAR INDEX |
COT data indicates a build of $3.55bn in net longs to $14.88bn held in the US dollar among non-commercials. The figure reflects a 31% increase in net longs on a week over week basis, and follows a 27% bump in the prior week. The US Dollar was the largest net long position held among currencies by a significant margin at the start of the prior week, but we can see something below the surfaces -Dealer COT in the 30yr notes: decrease in short position while growing on the net position- this could tell us that bottom is near!
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| CME COT POSITION |
Week ahead
It is going to be a heavy week data ahead, expect to a lot of action
2. Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA) 02/08/2016 Before
3. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) 02/08/2016 Before
4. HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBA) 02/08/2016 Before
5. Societe Generale SA (GLE.PA) 03/08/2016 Before
6. Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) 03/08/2016 After
7. LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD) 04/08/2016 After
8. Nokia Corporation (NOK) 04/08/2016 Before
9. Zynga Inc. (ZNGA) 04/08/2016 After
Forex and Commodities:1. TRADE BALANCE, JUNE (AUSTRALIA), Tuesday, August 2 at 01:30 GMT
2. RBA INTEREST RATE DECISION (AUSTRALIA), Tuesday, August 2 at 04:30 GMT
3. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (JAPAN), Tuesday, August 2 at 05:00 GMT
4. ECB INTEREST RATE DECISION (EURONOZE), Wednesday, August 3 at 08:00 GMT
5. ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (USA), Wednesday, August 3 at 12:15 GMT
6. ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI (USA), Wednesday, August 3 at 14:00 GMT
7. CRUDE INVENTORIES – WEEKLY REPORT (USA), Wednesday, August 3 at 14:30 GMT
8. BOE INTEREST RATE DECISION (UK), Thursday, August 4 at 11:00 GMT
9. NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES – WEEKLY REPORT (USA), Thursday, August 04 at 14:30 GMT
10. TRADE BALANCE, (CANADA), Friday, August 5 at 12:30 GMT
11. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (CANADA), Friday, August 5 at 12:30 GMT
12. TRADE BALANCE, MAY (USA), Friday, August 5 at 12:30 GMT
13. NON-FARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT DATA (USA), Friday, August 5 at 12:30 GMT
14. BUSINESS CONFIDENCE (CANADA), Friday, August 5 at 14:00 GMT
15. TRADE BALANCE, EXPORTS & IMPORTS (CHINA), Monday, August 8 at 02:00 GMT
Stronger US data in the new week can easily see probabilities moving back to the high 30’s, while it is unlikely that the DXY will regain the 97.00 handle, even if inflation and labor data strengthen this week. The data points to a squeeze in Dollar in the prior week, the momentum in the decline will likely subside this week.
Final words:
we can see there is more room for going up follows strong moves by the expectation,
don't surprise if we will see dollar index price going lower over the last lows 92 area, still to come test 95-96 area -break up again those levels, and holding above should give the dollar index prices to see higher level and even new records- it’s all open
This review does not including any document and / or file attached to it as an advice or recommendation to buy / sell securities and / or other advice
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